Hopes on the “Path to Development”… Supportive Countries and Angry Countries

 

A vague agreement aroused the ire of some neighboring countries, amid efforts to involve new countries in it. Thus became the scene of the development road, which Iraq seeks to implement on the ground in all available ways, but the government’s hopes for this road were refuted by specialists in the field of international and maritime transport, and they confirmed that the road will be “without value” without activating the Iraqi industry to export it to the countries participating in this route from north to south.

While the declared goal of the road, which will be linked to the port of Al-Faw, was a link between the East and West of the world, today it has in fact become a line linking Turkey and the Arab Gulf states, but this matter is not going according to plan either, as the compass of agreements with neighboring countries points to the involvement of Saudi Arabia, which will completely transform the connection to land, and end any role for the large port of Al-Faw.

An expert in the field of international transport, Ziad Al-Hashemi, said during an interview with “Al Aalem Al Jadeed” that “Iraq signed a memorandum of understanding with Turkey, the Emirates and Qatar for the path of development, as the line begins with both its railway and land parts to the large port of Al-Faw, all the way to the Iraqi-Turkish border, and aims to both Qatar and the Emirates use it to raise the level of trade exchange between them and Turkey.”

Al-Hashemi adds, “Iraq does not have sufficient capabilities to build this road, and does not have the expertise, infrastructure, or logistics, but in the long term, the road, if completed, will be linked to the Turkish market, and here we are talking about countries that will benefit, such as Georgia, Greece, and Bulgaria, as well as there will be imports to the Emirates, especially since the latter has a free market and manufacturing centers in Jabal Ali.”

He points out that “the issue of financing is still ambiguous until now, and the memorandum of understanding that was signed between the four countries is not binding on any of them, as it is merely a memorandum of intent for the purpose of studying the available options, and does not include any financing or agreement on common points,” indicating that “the government spokesman Bassem Al-Awadi announced the establishment of a fund from oil revenues, and this is a long-term option, because it takes a long time to complete the project, as we are talking about 17 billion dollars.”

The expert in the field of international transport continues, “From the above, it is clear that this project lacks the necessary funding. Neither Qatar nor the UAE is ready to finance it, but perhaps these countries will participate with logistical support.”

Regarding the feasibility of this project, he explains that “there are great doubts about the feasibility of this project, because the cost of the project is very large, especially operating the railway, as it needs to witness a continuous flow of goods north and south and throughout the day, in order to obtain financial returns that cover the operational cost.”

Al-Hashemi continues: “An agreement was concluded with Abu Dhabi Ports, UAE, to manage Al-Faw Port, and management here means operating the port, and finding ship companies and ships to use the port through the process of linking Jebel Ali and Al-Faw Port, where there will be direct flights and use of the land road towards Turkey and vice versa.”

It calls for “establishing factories or entering into partnerships with the Gulf states and Turkey to establish Iraqi-Turkish supply chains or Iraqi-Emirati or Iraqi-Qatari supply chains, so that the goods are partially manufactured in Turkey or the Emirates, then their manufacturing is completed in Iraq and exported, in order to add valuable within the country, and obtaining benefit from this road linking Turkey and the Gulf.”

During the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Baghdad last month, Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani announced the signing of a four-way memorandum of understanding between Iraq, Turkey, Qatar and the UAE to cooperate in the “Development Road Project,” while a joint statement stated that this strategic project will contribute to stimulating economic growth. It will enhance regional and international cooperation relations by achieving economic integration and striving towards a sustainable economy between East and West. It will also work to increase international trade, facilitate movement and commerce, provide a new competitive transportation route, and enhance regional economic prosperity.

This agreement sparked a wave of angry reactions in Kuwait, as the project was launched from the Iraqi “Al-Faw” port, which is adjacent to the Kuwaiti “Mubarak” port, amid the faltering completion of the latter, which they considered a threat to the country’s national, economic and commercial interests.

The development road project includes the inauguration of land roads and railways extending from Iraq to Turkey and its ports. Its length is 1,200 kilometers inside Iraq, and it aims to transport goods between Europe and the Gulf countries.

The project’s investment budget amounted to about 17 billion dollars. The project will provide 100,000 job opportunities in the first phase, and one million jobs after its completion. The project is scheduled to be completed in 3 phases, the first ending in 2028, the second in 2033, and the third in 2050.

In addition, Jamal Al-Halbousi, an expert on international borders and waters, said during an interview with Al Aalem Al Jadeed that “Iraq has good relations with Kuwait, and cannot use any economic action against it, especially since its policy is open to all countries, especially neighboring countries, and accordingly It cannot be said that Iraq harms the interests of a neighboring country, but some neighboring countries, including Kuwait, view Iraq as their lion’s share, and this is not true.”

Al-Halbousi confirms that “Iraq’s geographical reality proves that it deals with countries in the Middle East, including the Gulf countries, in a way that ensures the best use of the development road or the Al-Faw road, and therefore Kuwait, with its port, which it hoped would turn into a railway link point with Iraq, turned out to be no It is economically feasible and causes additional losses to the process of transporting goods.”

A number of representatives of the National Assembly in Kuwait expressed their dissatisfaction with the quadripartite agreement for the development project, considering that the political instability in Kuwait and the vacuum in some leadership positions led to the disruption of development projects in the country, which inflicts on their country great losses at various levels, especially economic ones.

Al-Halbousi continues, “The handling and maintenance process, in addition to entry operations from one country to another, are all procedures that cause delays and increased costs for the merchant, and because the UAE and Qatar found their interest in the Al-Faw port, which connects them by land to Europe via Turkey, they were enthusiastic about this route. In Kuwait’s understanding, this is considered a blow to it, as the rule of geography put Iraq in this position, but the Kuwaitis’ misunderstanding of this reality, and their lack of awareness and weakness in dealing with this file, is what led them to persist in establishing Port Mubarak in an incorrect step.”

He added, “Trade coming from neighboring countries and the region, such as Qatar, the Emirates, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iran, Turkey, Jordan, and Syria, cannot give priority to the interests of one country over another, because it is a trade movement, as the merchant has goods that he takes from Iran and crosses through central Iraq to Syria. It is possible to abandon the use of this short land route and go to a sea route from the port of Bandar Abbas and come to the Gulf. Here it will be a large transportation operation with high costs, and therefore Kuwait, in the sense of being short, says that Iraq dealt it a blow through its agreement with Turkey, the Emirates and Qatar.

Regarding Saudi Arabia, the expert on the border explains, “Saudi Arabia will participate in this line. If we return to the conference that was held in Baghdad in the presence of neighboring countries to discuss the issue of railway connection to the main roads such as Arar Jemima with Saudi Arabia, and Zurbatiyah and Al-Mundhiriya with Iran, and through Sulaymaniyah there is also a road With Syria and Jordan, there is the Trebil Road, and the Ibrahim Al-Khalil Road with Turkey as well. Here, Saudi Arabia will be a de facto partner. If goods are sent from northern Saudi Arabia, they will pass by land and will not be sent through seaports to the south, as they will pass through Iraq and go to their destination, for example, to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Armenia, via Turkey. Or Iran, and here Iraq will be the middle path and the best transit route.”

Since June last year, Saudi Arabia and Iran have expressed their full support for the “development path” project announced by Al-Sudani, and while they expressed their thanks and appreciation for Iraq’s efforts to restore relations between the two countries and consolidate stability in the region, they revealed investment plans that include cooperation and pumping money into the Iraqi market.

The Director General of the General Company for Railways, Younis Khaled, confirmed on May 15 last year that the development road project represents Iraq’s dream, and it is a complement to the large Al-Faw port project. It will be the largest project in Iraq, and the railway will pass through 10 Iraqi governorates. It will also transform into a corridor from Iraq to European markets, and that the volume of revenues through development will reach $5 billion annually.

Many economists place high hopes on the large port of Al-Faw and the development road linking Iraq to Europe, and they stress that the revenues that the project will generate for Iraq are not limited only to fees for transporting goods, but rather that it will revive many industries and establish various commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors.

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