Most writers and journalists in the Arab World have looked at the Trump team either with apprehension or with great expectation. The first camp believes that Trump’s usual inclination to utter threats and use intimidation to get his way means the region will experience calamity and further destruction. The second camp is more hopeful, as President Trump has personal relationships with rulers in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Both camps may have a grasp of some of the truth but not the whole truth. Trump has inherited his style of threatening foes and rivals from his long career as a businessman in a complex and difficult New York environment and from his long running TV show, The Apprentice. Both New York business conditions and his successful TV series have honed his penchant for taking risks and engaging in daring ventures. This has shaped his style and relations with people.
Trump appreciates having personal relations with his counterparts and considers this a precondition for success. For instance, he values his dealings with Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and with Mohamed bin Zayed, the Head of the UAE. However, the issue is not whether these relationships will contribute to Trump’s influence in the Middle East. Rather, it is whether these Arab rulers will be willing to use their personnel connections with Trump and their resources to shape U.S. Middle East policy. Over seventy years of experience demonstrate that Arab rulers have failed to articulate their expectations or convey the aspirations of their citizens in these rulers’ engagements with successive American administrations.
Whether the administration in Washington is Democratic or Republican, two qualities stand out. The White House expects foreign rulers who ignore the aspirations of their citizens will heed the White House’s instructions. The more concessions the foreign leaders make, the more is expected from them. Second, even when Washington’s elites do not agree with foreign rulers who defend their national interests, they show respect to them.
While the new Trump administration is no different from other elites regarding the above two points, there is one factor that is often neglected in political analysis: When it comes to Trump, he is unpredictable when conveying where he stands. This brings us to an issue that is of immediate concern to Israel supporters and firsters. Most of these groups, while acknowledging that the Trump team is “like a dream team for Israel” (Jerusalem Post , December 2, 2024), warn that the presence of some who are Nationalists in the administration should not be left unscrutinized.
The Trump team encompasses three groups that share some similarities but differ in their end goals. These groups are the Evangelical Christians, Right-Wing Jews, and Nationalists. The rivalry among these groups is real but is under the surface, as all pronounce loyalty to Trump. A sketch of each groups’ beliefs is briefly summarized below:
Evangelical Christians. This group is powerful and has about 8 million followers. They follow their own interpretations of Biblical prophecies and the centrality of the second coming of Jesus Christ. In this context, Israel plays a central role in that they believe that Jews must be relocated to the Holy Land in order to accelerate the second coming of Jesus. They assume once Jews are gathered in the Holy Land, it will make it easier to convert them to Christianity. For them, a divine act is in the making and all other considerations should be subordinated to this Godly design. Among the most prominent individuals in the new team are Secretary of State, Marco Rubio; Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth; Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem; U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee; National Security Adviser, Michael Waltz; and Pam Bondi, Attorney General.
Hard-line Jews. While they agree with the above group on their views regarding the Middle East and both are Israeli worshipers, they differ on the endgame. For hardline Jews, the support for Israel must be unconditional and strictly aimed at maintaining Israel supremacy and dominance in the region. While they suspect Evangelical Christians , they cooperate closely with them on matters that serve Israel. Among the most vocal advocates are the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick; White House Deputy Chief of Staff, Stephen Miller; U.N. Ambassador, Elise Stefanik; EPA Administrator, Lee Zeldin; Steven Witkoff, Special Envoy to the Middle East; Morgan Ortagus, Deputy to Special Envoy to the Middle East; Adam Boehler, Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs; Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary; and Will Scharf, White House Staff Secretary.
Nationalists. This group believes that American interests must come first.This is what puts them apart from the previous two groups whose commitment to Israel is a priority. Though Nationalists are not well represented in the administration, their strength comes from advocating international issues that are favored by Trump. This group includes Vice President JD Vance; Secretary of the Military, Daniel Driscol; and Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard.
The Jewish Forward reported that the Trump team features “people deeply connected to the Jewish and pro-Israel communities.” This positions the Arab and Muslim causes in a strategically weak place. And since there are no Arab or Muslim Americans who have assumed positions of authority in any cabinet or even a position of deputy or undersecretary in the administration, the future might be bleak for Arab and Muslim causes.
In the end, Trump is unpredictable in his actions and, if he is left to himself, he might even do good. What will happen in the Middle East, however, depends on who is whispering in Trump’s ear. His decision to move the American Embassy to Jerusalem was justified by his statement, “And we moved the capital of Israel to Jerusalem. That’s for the Evangelicals.” Recently, he appointed Morgan Ortagus as his deputy envoy for Middle East peace stating, “She has strong Republican support, and I’m not doing this for me, I’m doing it for them.”
President Trump makes choices that are dictated by his personal relations with people who are close to him. These choices can be detrimental to the fate and the future of the Arab and Muslim World. Since almost all Trump’s advisers are hostile to economic prosperity and freedom in the Middle East, the region might go through serious political upheaval and social strife.
This is especially true as Arab and Muslim American communities are fragmented and without an articulated cause. This means that Trump is not going to have policies conducive to respecting the will of the Arab people. In fact, he has demonstrated that he listens to both Evangelicals and right-wing Jews. Both groups harbor ill feelings toward Arabs and Muslims. This signals that the aspirations of the Arab and Muslim people for a better future is without active advocates or articulated support.
Abbas J. Ali is a distinguished university professor, Indiana University of Pennsylvania.