Al-aalem Al-jadeed

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What are the indicators of the timing of Mikati’s visit to Iraq?

The Middle East region is living in a crisis situation as a result of the war launched by Israel on the Gaza Strip since October 2023 and which continues until now, leaving tens of thousands of Palestinian victims dead and wounded, most of whom are children and women. As a result, the circle of confrontation has expanded to include other countries such as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iran, while Baghdad and some other capitals are working to calm the escalating violence through proposals to stop the ongoing aggression against the Gaza Strip.

Last Saturday evening, 20 Israeli fighter planes launched a series of raids targeting refining facilities and fuel stores in the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, in addition to a major site for generating and distributing electricity and offices belonging to the oil company, in response to an attack carried out by the Houthis a few days ago with a large drone that hit an important target in Israel.

On the evening of the same day, Israel bombed, with air strikes, ammunition depots belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, causing large explosions, while Israeli aircraft raided the vicinity of the towns of Adloun and Shehabiya in southern Lebanon, following a large barrage of missiles launched by Hezbollah towards northern Israel and the Golan.

Shortly after that escalation, the Prime Minister of the Lebanese caretaker government, Najib Mikati, visited the capital, Baghdad, and held a series of meetings with Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani, and other figures, to discuss the conditions of the region and economic and other aspects.

Regarding this visit, political analyst Raji Naseer said, during an interview with Al Aalem Al Jadeed, that “the visit is an achievement and the Arab countries must cooperate with each other, given that there is a similarity in thinking and temperaments.”

He added, “Lebanon is a witness to the many Iraqi positions regarding supplying it with oil and other things in light of its crises, and Iraq is politically and economically close to the Lebanese side, and the issue is not participation in the Lebanese crisis because basically the entire region is in crisis and some of the trenches have become clear and Iraq can be a partner in resolving and fragmenting the crisis, especially those that affect the resistance of the Palestinian people by opening other fronts that are not in the interest of the Arab cause.”

Naseer continues, “Mikati’s visit will be a start for two countries suffering from a political, media, and economic crisis. It is possible to benefit from the Yemeni experience, and Iraq and Lebanon can change the equation and change the current equation.”

Iraq has become influential in the regional and international community recently, especially after its success in hosting numerous conferences to bring views closer between Iran and Saudi Arabia through rounds of dialogue held in Baghdad, in addition to its move now to conclude a new reconciliation between Syria and Turkey after a long rupture in the relationship between the two countries.

In this context, political analyst Ghaleb Al-Daami ruled out, during an interview with Al Aalem Al Jadeed, that “there is a connection between Mikati’s visit to Baghdad and the Israeli strikes on sites belonging to the Lebanese Hezbollah,” indicating that it is “related to supplying Lebanon with Iraqi fuel, because without this, you can’t do anything with fuel and it is almost free.”

He continues, “We cannot say that Iraq’s role has grown to a high level of influence, because it is affiliated with the axis of resistance, and therefore its relations with countries that are not affiliated with this axis are not good, even if they contain courtesy,” adding, “But Iraq’s role has begun to grow clearly and that he is moving in the right direction in improving his relations, and whenever he distances himself from the interlocutor, this is in his interest.”

It is noteworthy that the Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, stressed Sunday, the necessity of stopping the aggression against Lebanon and Palestine and making efforts to prevent the conflict from expanding regionally.

In addition, security analyst Aqeel Al-Taie said, during an interview with Al Aalem Al Jadeed, that “the apparent visit of caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati to Iraq and its agenda is to enhance economic exchange, supply oil to Lebanon, and cooperation between the two countries in various fields.”

He points out that “Lebanon is going through very difficult economic and political conditions, as well as an open war with Israel, and that the resistance factions in Iraq have spared no effort to participate in supporting Gaza in cooperation with Yemen and the rest of the Axis countries, and recent events are raising fears in the region.”

He points out that “Iraq is geographically far from the conflict areas, but its situation may be worsened by the United States of America, given that it is part of the axis of resistance, which has its own and common beliefs.”

Al-Taie warns, “Certainly, the expansion of the conflict will have a negative impact on the country politically and economically, and Lebanon wants to secure itself economically through cooperation with Iraq, so the Al-Sudani government will be in a critical situation, especially as it prepares for the upcoming elections.”

It is noteworthy that Iraqi armed factions had previously announced that they would stand by the Lebanese Hezbollah if Israel launched a comprehensive war against the party or Lebanon in general, which put the Iraqi government in an awkward position as it is trying to distance Iraq from the policy of dialogue.

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